Across key facets, the economy performed well during the second quarter. Economic growth continues to outperform expectations. The labor market remained incredibly tight, bolstering spending and consumer spirits. And inflation slowed significantly. All this supported equity markets, which pushed higher, into bull-market territory. But the Fed continued to tighten, risking an economic expansion that has entered its fourth year. Our outlook shows the economy avoiding recession in 2023, and likely doing so in 2024, if notable headwinds do not prove too great to overcome.