BGO: Insights

The Chief Economist: Obstacle Course

Written by BGO | Oct 23, 2024 7:03:05 PM

The economy continues to perform well as it enters the fourth quarter of 2024, with retail sales and jobless claims reflecting positive momentum. Inflation shows signs of easing, further supporting economic growth. However, external challenges, including geopolitical risks, severe weather, and labor unrest, create uncertainty and complicate data interpretation. Despite these hurdles, the commercial real estate (CRE) market appears resilient, with improving fundamentals and capital markets. The third-quarter data indicates favorable returns, pointing to a recovery in CRE driven by strong economic underpinnings and the stabilization of market fundamentals.

Looking ahead, the CRE market is expected to benefit from steady income returns as capital markets continue to recover. External events may increase short-term challenges, but they are unlikely to derail the broader economic trajectory or CRE performance. The focus remains on maintaining strong fundamentals amid a changing economic environment, with rising equity markets, low interest rates, and a tight labor market offering additional support.

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