In the latest edition of BGO's "The Chief Economist," Ryan Severino, CFA, highlights key economic trends, including the continued decline in inflation and the stronger-than-expected economy. Despite revisions showing a robust economy, inflation is gradually slowing, particularly in sectors like groceries and energy. Severino points out that faulty shelter inflation calculations in the U.S. create an illusion of higher inflation, which would be much lower if measured like in the Eurozone.
The labor market, while looser than last year, remains tight, with job openings still above pre-pandemic levels and unemployment rates holding steady. Severino also discusses the implications for commercial real estate (CRE), indicating that lower interest rates should benefit the CRE market unless unforeseen events, like a trade war, disrupt the global supply chain. However, even in such a scenario, CRE could fare better than other asset classes due to its already depressed valuations.