The Chief Economist: 4Q2023 Global Economic Outlook
The global economic narrative for 2023 tells a tale of two halves. After a robust first half, during which economic growth proved resilient and consistent, the global economy is slowing as we head into the latter stages of the year. This slowdown is occurring across regions, and some could face a contraction this year or next. But the global economy proves resilient to regional slowdowns. In the last 45 years, the modern era of global economic integration, the global economy has contracted only twice: during the 2008-2009 global financial crisis (GFC) and during the pandemic, both highly idiosyncratic, global events. We see no such analogue this cycle. Moreover, we expect any slowdown to prove relatively short and shallow, in contrast to the prior two slowdowns.
