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The Chief Economist: 4Q2023 U.S. CRE Outlook

The Chief Economist: 4Q2023 U.S. CRE Outlook

Heading into the home stretch of the year, the U.S. commercial real estate (CRE) market has endured a year of transition. Industrial and apartments are transitioning back to pre-pandemic environments after a few years of outsized demand, followed by a period of excess supply. Retail has quietly transitioned to its tightest market in history, as measured by CoStar’s national vacancy rate. Office is still transitioning to its post-pandemic equilibrium. And CRE capital markets are transitioning from a period of rising interest rates and negative returns to a period of stable to declining interest rates and a swing back to positive returns. 2024 will likely see a continuation of all those trends. Yet our proprietary forecasting and market targeting, which uses both advanced artificial intelligence and econometric techniques, continues to show compelling investment opportunities ahead and an outlook that has brightened over the last quarter.

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