Welcome back to our readers and hello to our new subscribers, my name is Ryan Severino, CFA aka Punxsutawney Ryan and I'm happy to share this week's Groundhog Day edition of The Chief Economist for your reading pleasure.
It looks like we might get an early spring this year, according to multiple groundhogs. But in the labor market things have run hot for a long while. Last month proved no different. The overall details came in a bit mixed. Yet, January’s employment situation report still showed a lot of strength and momentum in the labor market as the economy rolled into 2024. Set against a longer trend, recent strength seems like an aberration. But revisions show that the labor market ended 2023 more strongly than previously believed. And GDP growth accelerated in 2024 as the year progressed. How long can this upswing last?