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The Chief Economist: Goldilocks Returns?

The Chief Economist: Goldilocks Returns?


  • Labor market cooling.
  • Productivity unchanged.
  • Fed still on hold.
  • Inflation deluge coming.
  • CRE investors should get ready.

Welcome back readers to another edition of BGO's The Chief Economist. My name is Ryan Severino, CFA and I'm the proud author of this newsletter that aims to help you make sense of what's transpiring in the economy today.

This year many are hoping for a return of the “Goldilocks” economy. An economy that doesn’t run too hot nor too cold would enable the Fed to feel comfortable bringing rates down, but without the economy slowing too quickly and flirting with a recession. And with two months of the year in the books (at least in the economic data) it appears that we might just get such a thing. The labor market, arguably the most important facet of the economy, seems to suggest as much. What can we take from the data thus far and what does it mean for commercial real estate (CRE)?

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