The Chief Economist: Apparent Contradictions
In "Apparent Contradictions," Ryan Severino, CFA, Chief Economist at BGO, explores the conflicting signals in the U.S. economy as of mid-2025. Despite aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, the labor market remains tight with unemployment at 4.1%, yet job growth is slowing and concentrated in specific industries. A structural labor shortage persists, but mismatches between labor supply and demand, particularly in technology, have led to record-high unemployment rates among recent graduates.
The housing market exhibits similar contradictions. While the U.S. faces a structural housing shortage, certain markets experience overdevelopment, leading to declining prices and rents. Consumer spending continues to drive economic growth, yet consumer confidence remains low, and credit scores are deteriorating, especially among those with poor credit profiles. These apparent contradictions complicate the economic landscape, particularly for commercial real estate stakeholders.
