The Chief Economist: Inflation Wars - Macro Vs. Micro
The article "Inflation Wars: Macro vs. Micro" by BGO examines the interplay between macroeconomic and microeconomic forces influencing inflation in 2025. Macroeconomic factors, such as weakened aggregate demand due to higher tariffs, are exerting disinflationary pressure, evident in declining energy prices and reduced consumer spending. Conversely, microeconomic forces, particularly the direct impact of tariffs on specific goods, are contributing to inflationary pressures. The article suggests that while macro forces may temporarily suppress inflation, micro-level factors could lead to a resurgence in price levels later in the year.
For the commercial real estate (CRE) sector, understanding this dynamic is crucial. The timing and magnitude of these opposing forces will influence inflation trends, affecting investment strategies and market expectations. The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming inflation data and trade developments, such as the recent UK trade deal, to navigate the evolving economic landscape effectively.
