The Chief Economist: 1Q2025 U.S. Economic Outlook

BGO’s Chief Economist, Ryan Severino, provides an in-depth analysis of the U.S. economy as 2025 unfolds. Despite policy uncertainties, the base case remains positive, with inflation continuing to ease, interest rates expected to decline gradually, and the labor market maintaining stability. Household net worth is at record highs, and productivity growth is accelerating, driven by technological advancements. Consumer spending remains strong, supported by wage growth and favorable employment conditions. Private investment is also projected to grow, albeit at a slower pace, with the CRE sector benefiting from stable demand and a limited supply pipeline.

However, three key risks—trade policy uncertainty, potential monetary policy missteps, and unpredictable exogenous shocks—could disrupt this optimistic outlook. The threat of tariffs and trade wars could stifle growth, while persistently high real interest rates may constrain economic activity. Nevertheless, if the economy avoids severe disruptions, the ongoing expansion could continue well into the decade, setting the stage for one of the most favorable periods for CRE in years.

Read the full analysis: 1Q2025 U.S. Economic Outlook