The Chief Economist: A Bumpier Road Ahead?
In this week’s edition of The Chief Economist, BGO’s Ryan Severino highlights the mixed signals emerging from the U.S. economy. Credit conditions are easing and productivity rebounded in Q2, though overall growth remains subdued compared to last year. With a slowing labor force, productivity gains will be critical in sustaining GDP growth. Meanwhile, consumers continue to support spending, though recent signs suggest momentum may be weakening, raising questions about whether the road ahead will get bumpier.
This week’s key focus is inflation. With July’s CPI and PPI data expected to show tariff-driven pressure, the balance between business absorption of costs and eventual consumer impact could shift. While runaway inflation is not anticipated, BGO sees a 50–100 basis point acceleration as likely. For commercial real estate (CRE), uncertainty around inflation and trade policy has slowed the recovery, but the sector continues to adapt.
