The Chief Economist: Get Ready – The Data Is On Its Way
In this week's edition of The Chief Economist, Ryan Severino of BGO provides an incisive breakdown of a pivotal week for economic developments. The U.S. Federal Reserve remains under the spotlight, balancing persistent inflationary pressures against a softening labor market. Despite political scrutiny, the Fed opted to hold rates steady, though dissension is growing among members advocating for cuts. Severino notes that the Fed's cautious tone, amid rising tariffs and potential downside employment risks, signals a likely loosening bias heading into the latter part of the year.
Meanwhile, a flood of data—from job openings and consumer sentiment to GDP growth and wage inflation—offers a complex picture of a resilient yet slowing U.S. economy. Trade negotiations are gaining traction, albeit with elevated tariffs continuing to loom large. For commercial real estate (CRE), the environment is one of cautious optimism. Despite macroeconomic headwinds, real interest rates remain positive, and gradual monetary easing is expected to support a slow but ongoing recovery in CRE markets.
