The Chief Economist: If A Tree Falls In An Economy…

In this latest edition of The Chief Economist, BGO’s Ryan Severino explores how the U.S. economy continues to move forward despite limited data during the ongoing government shutdown. With official reports paused, private and selective public data reveal that the broad economic narrative remains largely intact — a cooling labor market, resilient consumer spending, and ongoing strength in AI-driven investment. The Fed’s Beige Book supports BGO’s view that another rate cut is likely as the Fed prioritizes labor stability over inflation. Meanwhile, steady equity markets and easing oil prices indicate a moderate but stable environment that reflects the firm’s long-term outlook.

For commercial real estate (CRE), BGO emphasizes stability and gradual recovery across sectors. Multifamily and industrial markets appear to have reached their cyclical vacancy peaks, while retail continues to perform well and office sentiment shows signs of overreaction relative to fundamentals. On the capital markets side, transaction volume and debt origination are recovering, cap rates are stabilizing, and total returns are improving. BGO highlights that even amid data gaps and uncertainty, CRE continues to show resilience and adaptability across property types.

Read the full article here: If A Tree Falls In An Economy…