The Chief Economist: Key Policy Clarity
BGO’s Chief Economist Ryan Severino analyzes recent shifts in U.S. fiscal and trade policy, following the passage of the federal budget and the announcement of new tariffs. The budget bill includes tax cuts and investment incentives likely to lift short-term GDP growth but may also contribute to inflation and higher interest rates. With increased Treasury issuance, there is potential for greater bond market volatility. Nonetheless, the package is expected to have a net-positive short-term impact on the economy.
On the trade front, Severino notes the rise in effective tariff rates is likely to persist. While the new tariffs introduce more complexity, BGO’s proprietary behavioral economics model had anticipated this outcome. For commercial real estate (CRE), the outlook remains cautiously optimistic. Policy measures such as bonus depreciation and low-income housing credits offer near-term benefits, while elevated tariffs may shift returns toward market-specific rather than macroeconomic drivers.
