The Chief Economist: The Second Coming?

BGO’s Chief Economist, Ryan Severino, draws inspiration from Yeats’ “The Second Coming” to analyze the shifting U.S. economic order. Immigration restrictions, new tariffs, and the rapid adoption of AI are reshaping the labor market, slowing job creation, and pushing unemployment to its highest level since 2021. While job growth has weakened significantly in recent months, BGO argues that these changes reflect both risks and opportunities as the economy evolves. A September rate cut now looks highly likely, as the Fed appears to be prioritizing the slowdown in employment over inflation concerns.

For commercial real estate (CRE), BGO notes that while one rate cut will not solve structural challenges, it could help provide a safety net. The sector remains resilient whether the economy narrowly avoids or briefly dips into recession. CRE fundamentals and income returns may soften, but lower interest rates would support capital markets and appreciation returns, echoing patterns seen during past downturns. BGO underscores that while today’s turbulence is real, history suggests it will not last indefinitely.

Read the full article here: The Second Coming?