In this edition of The Chief Economist, BGO’s Ryan Severino revisits the U.S. labor market as full data reporting resumes following last year’s government shutdown. At first glance, labor conditions appear largely unchanged: hiring remains subdued, job openings have normalized, and employment growth in 2025 was the weakest outside of recessionary periods. While wage growth continues to outpace inflation and support consumer spending, BGO notes that the labor market has settled into a “don’t hire, don’t fire” equilibrium, masking deeper structural shifts beneath the surface.

Looking beyond headline data, BGO highlights powerful undercurrents reshaping the economy. An aging workforce, restricted immigration, skill mismatches, and geographic immobility are constraining labor supply, while economic uncertainty and AI adoption are dampening labor demand—particularly for new entrants and recent graduates. At the same time, early evidence suggests productivity growth may finally be improving, driven by technology and automation. For commercial real estate (CRE), BGO emphasizes that while labor conditions still matter, the sector is becoming less dependent on traditional employment drivers as new property types tied to technology, healthcare, and data intensity gain prominence. The evolving labor market presents both challenges and opportunities in a CRE landscape that looks very different from the past.

Read the full article here: To Belabor The Point