The Chief Economist: Woah, we're half way there...
As the U.S. hits the halfway mark of 2025, BGO’s Chief Economist Ryan Severino offers a snapshot of the economic landscape heading into summer. While growth has slowed—technically contracting in Q1—positive job gains and record-high equity markets suggest underlying resilience. However, consumer confidence is softening, housing remains under pressure, and core inflation is edging slightly above expectations, raising concerns about future economic momentum and its impact on commercial real estate (CRE).
Looking ahead, Severino outlines a packed data week, from job openings to construction spending, with implications for how the second half of the year may unfold. Early signs of moderation in CRE activity, such as longer due diligence periods and uncertain pricing data, echo broader macroeconomic trends. As trade policies evolve and the full effect of tariffs looms, CRE remains reflective of an economy in cautious transition. The summer may offer a break, but the real test lies ahead.
