In the first Chief Economist edition of 2026, BGO’s Ryan Severino outlines Eleven BIG Themes shaping the year ahead for the global economy and commercial real estate (CRE). Rather than a formal house forecast, BGO presents a framework of critical ideas to watch—from why a recession remains unlikely and inflation’s endgame is in sight, to easing capital scarcity and the capital-intensive nature of deglobalization. BGO emphasizes that labor market frictions, anchored inflation expectations, and continued AI-driven investment should allow economic expansion to persist, even as uncertainty clouds the precise path forward.

For CRE, BGO highlights a regime shift already underway. Fundamentals are increasingly demand-driven, capital markets are transitioning away from appreciation-led returns toward income and asset management discipline, and distress remains idiosyncratic rather than systemic. Alternative property types are moving from niche to core, data- and energy-intensive assets are gaining prominence, and traditional sectors are evolving rather than collapsing. Taken together, BGO sees 2026 as a year where macro uncertainty coexists with compelling, selective CRE opportunities for informed investors.

Read the full article here: Eleven BIG Themes for 2026