The Chief Economist: Jackson Hole (In One)

BGO’s Chief Economist, Ryan Severino, highlights the market’s strong reaction to Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, comparing it to the excitement of a hole-in-one. While markets celebrated the possibility of a September rate cut, BGO stresses that labor market risks now outweigh inflation concerns. Severino points out that job losses during growth periods are historically persistent, making the Fed’s focus on employment critical despite lingering inflationary pressures.

For commercial real estate (CRE), BGO maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook. A rate cut could provide much-needed support, but it will not be a cure-all, as longer-term rates and structural risks remain in play. BGO emphasizes that while CRE recovery continues, challenges persist, and the industry must stay vigilant as economic uncertainty unfolds.

Read the full article here: Jackson Hole (In One)