The Chief Economist: Jobs Miss, Tariffs Hit, Fed Stays
The latest edition of The Chief Economist from BGO highlights how July’s weak jobs report, escalating tariffs, and a cautious Federal Reserve are shaping the economic outlook. Payrolls rose by only 73,000, while revisions erased over 250,000 jobs from prior months, signaling slowing momentum. At the same time, new tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on goods from key trading partners are expected to feed into inflationary pressures as inventories deplete.
While the Fed held rates steady, dissenting voices within the FOMC suggest growing concern that employment risks outweigh inflation risks. For commercial real estate (CRE), the picture remains more encouraging: total returns and debt origination volumes improved in Q2, supporting a cyclical recovery. BGO’s outlook frames today’s challenges as a “speed bump, not a roadblock” for CRE markets.
