The Chief Economist: Our World View: 2Q 2025 Global Economic Outlook

BGO Chief Economist Ryan Severino’s “Our World View: 2Q 2025 Global Economic Outlook” offers a nuanced analysis of the global economy amid escalating trade tensions and policy uncertainties. Utilizing a proprietary econometric model, the report outlines three scenarios—base, upside, and downside—each examining the implications of current and potential tariff regimes, particularly those involving the U.S. In the base case, the global economy is projected to grow modestly at around 2% in 2025 and 2026, with inflationary pressures primarily stemming from U.S. tariffs. Central banks, including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England, are anticipated to prioritize economic growth over inflation control, potentially maintaining or easing monetary policies.

For the commercial real estate (CRE) sector, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic. Despite slower GDP growth, lower interest rates could support CRE capital markets through reduced cap rates and increased valuations. While some regions may experience heightened risk premiums, others could see declines, leading to robust transaction volumes and debt originations. Net operating income is expected to remain stable, suggesting resilience in income returns. However, the report emphasizes that the evolving trade policies and geopolitical landscape necessitate vigilant monitoring, as these factors could significantly influence economic trajectories and CRE performance.

Read the full article: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/our-world-view-2q-2025-global-economic-outlook-teambgo-gzwoe